Future population growth in the City Region over the next 20 years – likely to be offset by out-migration?

Encouragingly the City Region has an increasingly young, diverse and growing working age population.

The area’s working age population is forecast to grow by just under 100,000 (6%) in the next 10 years and by more than 180,000 (11%) by 2028.

This growth is expected to be underpinned by a significant increase in the number of young people. Numbers of 0-15 year olds are expected to increase by more than 65,000 (12%) in the next decade and by nearly 84,000 (14%) by 2028.

Source: Office for National Statistics, 2006-​​based population projections
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The growth rates for the working age population are very similar in the West Midlands and the City Region.

Modelling population change in the West Midlands: call for information

How do you try to understand the changes that are happening in your populations? Have you developed a model to try to understand population change? If so, we would be interested to hear from you.

As part of our State of the Region dialogue on population change, we’re looking for regional examples of how people have modelled population change, particularly where they are not based on the Office for National Statistics’ population projections.

We know that there are several different models used across the West Midlands in different policy areas. In this year’s State of the Region report we will try to bring these together and summarise the various models that are used.

ONS seminars on improvements to 2008 population statistics

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) are holding seminars across four locations in June 2009 to explain the forthcoming improvements to the mid-2008 population estimates, sub-national population projections and migration statistics.

The seminars will provide information on adjusting internal (within UK) migration using data on students. They will also cover modelling the geographical distribution of long-term international migration and short-term internal migration at the local authority level, together with other improvements that are being made.

Population change dialogue underway

We had a full house at the Observatory this week, to launch a new dialogue in our state of the region process on population change (pdf, 489kb).

With talks from Anthony Szary (Office for National Statistics), Anne Green (University of Warwick), Chris Allen (BRAP) and Richard Wilson (Sandwell PCT), the dialogue got off to a flying start.