West Midlands population estimated to have grown to 5.431 million in 2009

Office for National StatisticsThe population of the West Midlands grew at a lower annual rate than that for England in 2009, according to the latest population estimates released by the Office for National Statistics.

With a population of 5.431 million, the region’s population grew by 0.4 per cent (23,000) on the preceding year.

Natural change (birth minus deaths) was the most significant contributor to the growth at 20,000, whereas net migration accounted for the remainder, and with a value of 3,000, was the lowest of any nation or region in the UK.

Locally within the West Midlands region, the most significant increases in population (in absolute terms) were recorded in:

  • Birmingham  – up 10,000 to 1.029 million
  • Coventry – up 2,000 to 313,000
  • Sandwell – up 2,000 to 291,000

With an increase in population on the preceding year of 0.9 per cent, Birmingham also recorded the largest rate of increase, whereas Stoke-on-Trent’s population is estimated to have decreased by 0.2 per cent.

Across the UK, the population grew to 61.792 million in 2009, an increase of 0.6% on the preceding year, with natural change contributing 217,000 and net migration 177,000.

A detailed breakdown of all the 2009 mid-year population statistics—nationally, regionally and locally, as well as by age groups and gender—are available from the Office for National Statistics.

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ONS release revised local authority population estimates for 2002 to 2008

Office for National StatisticsThe Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released revised mid-2002 to mid-2008 population estimates for local authorities in England and Wales. The revisions have been produced as a result of improvements to ONS  methodology, introduced as part of the cross-government Migration Statistics Improvement Programme.

The new population estimates use an enhanced method for apportioning migrants to local authorities incorporating modelling using up-to-date survey and administrative data. Higher Education Statistics Agency data is utilised to improve estimates of student internal migration.

ONS have produced a population estimates analysis tool to help users understand the main patterns and trends in the population estimates. Users can select specific areas of interest and compare local estimates across time and with estimates at higher levels of geography.

Data users are also able to select specific age groups and view the components of population change for the chosen area.

Mid-2009 population estimates will be published on 24th June 2010, and will be based upon the new methodology.

Visit the ONS website for more information.

Future population growth in the City Region over the next 20 years – likely to be offset by out-migration?

Encouragingly the City Region has an increasingly young, diverse and growing working age population.

The area’s working age population is forecast to grow by just under 100,000 (6%) in the next 10 years and by more than 180,000 (11%) by 2028.

This growth is expected to be underpinned by a significant increase in the number of young people. Numbers of 0-15 year olds are expected to increase by more than 65,000 (12%) in the next decade and by nearly 84,000 (14%) by 2028.

Chart shows population projections in City Region between 2010 to 2031 for the working age population, people aged 0 to 15 years, and people of pension age

Source: Office for National Statistics, 2006-​​based population projections
Dataset: web page, CSV, XLS | Share: Interactive chart, image

The growth rates for the working age population are very similar in the West Midlands and the City Region.

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2011 Census and migration statistics roadshows

Office for National StatisticsThe Office for National Statistics are holding a series of roadshows in December 2009 to communicate the latest work being carried out to improve population statistics through the 2011 Census and the Improving Migration and Population Statistics projects.

There’s an event in Birmingham on Thursday, 3rd December at the International Convention Centre.

The Census seminars will outline progress on planning and executing the 2011 Census and focus on the methodology for assessing coverage and subsequent quality assurance of the census estimates.

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West Midlands population increased to over 5.4 million in 2008

Office for National Statistics logoThe population of the West Midlands grew to over 5.4 million in 2008, according to the latest population estimates released by the Office for National Statistics.

With a population of 5.411 million, the region’s population grew by 0.5% (29,000) on the preceding year.

Natural change (births minus deaths) was the most significant contributor to the growth at 20,000, whereas net migration accounted for the remainder (9,000).

Locally within the West Midlands region, the most significant increases in population (in absolute terms) were recorded in Birmingham (up 7,000 to 1.017 million), and Coventry (up 3,000 to 310,000). With an increase in population on the preceding year of 1%, Coventry also recorded the largest rate of increase.

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ONS seminars on improvements to 2008 population statistics

Office for National Statistics logoThe Office for National Statistics (ONS) are holding seminars across four locations in June 2009 to explain the forthcoming improvements to the mid-2008 population estimates, sub-national population projections and migration statistics.

The seminars will provide information on adjusting internal (within UK) migration using data on students. They will also cover modelling the geographical distribution of long-term international migration and short-term internal migration at the local authority level, together with other improvements that are being made.

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Subnational population projections

Anthony SzaryThe Observatory’s recent event to launch the State of the Region dialogue on population change started with a presentation from Anthony Szary on subnational population projections.

Anthony is the Regional Statistician for the Office for National Statistics and is based at the Observatory.

Anthony took the group through the ONS process for calculating population projections at the subnational level. The easy part (relatively!) of the calculation is to take account of trends in fertility and mortality while it’s much more difficult to try to measure trends in migration.

The latest population projections show that the West Midlands population is expected to grow by 11.4% between 2007 and 2027 to over 6 million. This is slower than the expected growth across many of the other English regions.  However, this projection is based on past trends in fertility, mortality and migration and could be very different if, for example, the birth rate became much higher or lower.
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Understanding our local populations

Richard Wilson from Sandwell PCTAt the Observatory’s recent event to launch the State of the Region dialogue on population change, Richard Wilson from Sandwell PCT spoke about some of the problems with population data. However, with help from quotes from David Brent to Albert Einstein, Richard argued that these problems should not lead to ‘data paralysis’ where problems with data become reasons for not making decisions.

Richard said that although population change is nothing new, it is important to understand how our population is changing by understanding, for example, which age groups are changing quickest, what the new family structures are and where new people are coming from.

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Moving the equalities agenda forward

Chris Allen listens inLast week the Observatory launched the  State of the Region dialogue on population change. This event was the first step towards understanding what evidence on the changing population is needed by policy makers in the region.

Chris Allen, Director of Research and Policy at brap, was one of the presenters at this event and his presentation Beyond being statistically challenged: How do we move the equalities agenda forward? is now available to view here. Continue reading

Local migration statistics resource guide

Cover of resource guideAnne Green, David Owen and Duncan Adam from the Warwick Institute for Employment Research have prepared a resource guide on local migration statistics (PDF, 2.7MB) on behalf of Local Government Association analysis and research.

The guide should assist local authorities and their partners in developing local population and migration estimates and trends.

The guide focuses on the strategic importance of international migration and associated issues at local and sub-regional levels.

The guide also outlines the strengths and weaknesses of available data sources and provides a guide to sources of intelligence on migration at local level.

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West Midlands population projected to grow by near 3% between 2007 and 2012

Office for National Statistics logoThe National Statistician’s annual article on the population has been published by the Office for National Statistics, covering the theme of aging and mortality, investigating the underlying demographic trends contributing to the UK’s population growth. The report also highlights key sub-national demographic statistics.

The UK’s population is projected to increase from 61 million in 2007 to 63.2 million in 2012 (3.7% growth), whereas over the same period in the West Midlands region the population is projected to increase from 5.4 million to 5.5 million (2.9% growth), the third lowest percentage increase of the nine English regions. The North East and North West are the only regions projected to record slower growth, whilst the East Midlands is forecast to experience the fastest with a population increase of 5.4%.

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Economic migrants

The subject of economic migrants and what benefits or problems they bring has not been quite as topical in recent months as it has been in the past.

The downturn in the economy and the weakening of the pound are assumed to discourage migration and to encourage economic migrants in the UK to think of returning home.

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New and emerging challenges of population change

On 16th September 2008, we hosted a full day seminar at the Observatory on new and emerging challenges of population change. The presentations by each of the speakers are now available to download.

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