Replacement demand set to be key source of jobs in West Midlands over next 5 years

An under–representation of higher value added sectors means that the pace of economic growth in the West Midlands over the next 5 years is forecast to be modest. Only 11,000 net new jobs (representing growth of 5% in total employment) are expected to be created between 2010 and 2015.

But the Observatory’s new report The West Midlands economy post recession: key issues and challenges (pdf, 844kb) predicts an additional 860,000 job vacancies are expected to arise between 2010-2015 due to ‘replacement demand.’

It’s estimated that nearly 510,000 jobs (58% of all job vacancies) will be due to labour turnover and more than 350,000 jobs (40% of all vacancies) will be due to older workers retiring.

Text description of this chart available. Chart prepared by West Midlands Regional Observatory based on Cambridge Econometrics forecasts and Office for National Statistics Labour Force Survey.

Replacement demand is forecast to be more significant in traditional private sector industries and public sector activities which have an ageing workforce. For example:

• 59,000 vacancies are expected to arise in manufacturing
• 50,000 vacancies are expected to arise in engineering
• 37,000 vacancies are expected to arise in construction

In health and social care, meanwhile, nearly 70,000 vacancies are expected to arise. The figure is more than 45,000 in education and more than 30,000 in public administration.

Many of the jobs on offer due to retirements are likely to require specific skills, qualifications and experience. Around 90% of these jobs are expected to be filled by people already in employment.

Research published on prospects for the West Midlands economy post recession

At the end of June, the Observatory published The West Midlands Economy Post Recession: Key Issues and Challenges (pdf, 844kb), a major piece of research exploring the changing needs of the region’s economy and labour market as it emerges from recession.

The research is informing the decisions of employers, individuals, providers and the skills system as they look to focus their investment in key areas to maximise impact.

Firstly, the research considers the region’s recent poor economic performance and the key factors that have contributed to this.

We detail the weaknesses within the region’s economic structure and, in particular, the dependence on public sector and lower value added private sector activities, in terms of GVA and jobs, and the limited representation of high value added, knowledge-based sectors.

We also highlight the low rates of productivity in many of the sectors that dominate the regional economy and assess the skill gaps and shortages businesses in the West Midlands face and the impact on productivity and performance.

West Midlands population estimated to have grown to 5.431 million in 2009

The population of the West Midlands grew at a lower annual rate than that for England in 2009, according to the latest population estimates released by the Office for National Statistics.

With a population of 5.431 million, the region’s population grew by 0.4 per cent (23,000) on the preceding year.

Natural change (birth minus deaths) was the most significant contributor to the growth at 20,000, whereas net migration accounted for the remainder, and with a value of 3,000, was the lowest of any nation or region in the UK.

Locally within the West Midlands region, the most significant increases in population (in absolute terms) were recorded in:

• Birmingham  – up 10,000 to 1.029 million
• Coventry – up 2,000 to 313,000
• Sandwell – up 2,000 to 291,000

With an increase in population on the preceding year of 0.9 per cent, Birmingham also recorded the largest rate of increase, whereas Stoke-on-Trent’s population is estimated to have decreased by 0.2 per cent.

Across the UK, the population grew to 61.792 million in 2009, an increase of 0.6% on the preceding year, with natural change contributing 217,000 and net migration 177,000.

A detailed breakdown of all the 2009 mid-year population statistics—nationally, regionally and locally, as well as by age groups and gender—are available from the Office for National Statistics.

Upcoming event: multiple risk factors of worklessness

We’re hosting an event on 6th July to share the findings and implications of our recent research looking at how a person’s background and personal characteristics affect the individual’s chance of being out of work.

The report, Worklessness in the West Midlands: the impact of demographics and multiple risk factors (pdf, 545kb), looks in depth at the impact of several ‘risk factors’, in isolation and in combination with each other:

• Being a young person (aged 16–24)
• Being an older person (aged 55 to retirement)
• Being from a black, Indian or Pakistani or ​Bangladeshi ethnic group
• Having a long-​term health problem or disability
• Being a lone parent
• Having no qualifications

The analysis will help decision makers get a greater understanding of the complex interplay of issues behind the current high rate of worklessness across the West Midlands.

The event takes place at the West Midlands Regional Observatory offices (get directions), 8:45–11:00am, 6th July 2010.

It’s free to attend, though please register as places are limited.

• Event agenda (pdf, 94kb)
• Book online (requires registration)
• Download a booking form (doc, 45kb)

ONS release revised local authority population estimates for 2002 to 2008

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released revised mid-2002 to mid-2008 population estimates for local authorities in England and Wales. The revisions have been produced as a result of improvements to ONS  methodology, introduced as part of the cross-government Migration Statistics Improvement Programme.

The new population estimates use an enhanced method for apportioning migrants to local authorities incorporating modelling using up-to-date survey and administrative data. Higher Education Statistics Agency data is utilised to improve estimates of student internal migration.

ONS have produced a population estimates analysis tool to help users understand the main patterns and trends in the population estimates. Users can select specific areas of interest and compare local estimates across time and with estimates at higher levels of geography.

Data users are also able to select specific age groups and view the components of population change for the chosen area.

Mid-2009 population estimates will be published on 24th June 2010, and will be based upon the new methodology.

Visit the ONS website for more information.

Consultation on English Indices of Deprivation

Communities and Local Government launched a consultation on the Indices of Deprivation this week.

The consultation is seeking input on three key areas:

• Need for an updated set of indices, the form they should take and comments on a longer term aim of whether specific indicators or domains should be comparable across the UK
• Comments on the methodology used for the Indices of Deprivation 2007
• Current availability of data sources if the Indices of Deprivation 2007 methodology is retained for an immediate update

Responses to the Indices of Deprivation 2007 suggested that a full scale review of the indices would be best held after the 2011 Census.

As such the consultation asks whether an update should be produced in 2010 based, as closely as possible, on the 2007 methodology with a subsequent detailed review to follow the next Census. The alternative is to postpone the update until after a full review is carried out.

The indices are used widely within public and third sectors to analyse patterns of deprivation, identify areas that would benefit from special initiatives or programmes and as a tool to determine eligibility for specific funding streams. As such, it’s a hugely important consultation and we would advise any interested parties to feed their views in through the CLG process.

Consultation papers are on the CLG website and responses need to be submitted by 10th May 2010.

New research on employment gap between white and BME communities in the West Midlands

There is a large gap between the employment rates of the white population and the black and minority ethnic (BME) population and this gap is bigger in the West Midlands than nationally.

74% of working age white people are in employment in the West Midlands (compared to 76% nationally), while 54% of working age BME people are in employment (compared to 60% nationally).

A new briefing paper (pdf, 761kb) from the Observatory’s economic inclusion research team explores the nature of this employment gap and other issues around minority ethnic groups and the labour market.

Download the briefing on employment and black and minority ethnic groups in the West Midlands (pdf , 761kb)

Higher level skills can help boost the region’s economic recovery

It’s no secret that the West Midlands has been harder hit by the recession than any other UK region. Indeed economic growth has been slower than that of many other regions for a number of years. This reflects long standing structural problems which mean we have relatively few high growth businesses. As a result, economic recovery in the West Midlands is expected to be difficult and protracted. Although headline regional Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to begin to rise this year, an upturn in employment is not expected until 2012 – and projections show that it could be well into the next decade before the region reaches the peak levels of employment seen in 2008.

Regional Skills Assessment published

The Regional Skills Assessment for 2009 is now available. This extensive research gives an overview of the changing needs of the West Midlands’ labour market, along with a detailed exploration of key issues by sector, by sub-region and for key groups.

This year’s main report presents a few distinctive sections compared to previous years. It mainly focuses on recent trends, looking also at the impact of recession and prospects for recovery.

The main report is complemented by two reports identifying the main skills needs and issues in each of the region’s key sectors and clusters.

The Assessment also includes a series of six detailed sub-​regional skills profiles assessing recent trends and future prospects for both the demand for and supply of skills. The profiles highlight key issues to support, in particular, development of Local Economic Assessments by local authorities, the commissioning of 16-​19 learning provision and the work of sub-​regional Employment and Skills Boards. The sub-regional assessments cover:

• Birmingham and Solihull
• Black Country
• Coventry and Warwickshire
• Herefordshire and Worcestershire
• Shropshire
• Staffordshire

In addition, there’s an entire chapter dedicated to future prospects in the region’s labour market with forecasts covering both short-​medium term (2009 to 2014) and long term (to 2024), using the Observatory’s economic forecasting model.

View the Regional Skills Assessment 2009 pages on wmro.org

Key contact: Andy Phillips, Head of Skills Research

On migration and economic migrants in the West Midlands

A migrant worker is someone who immigrates to another country to seek employment and improve his/her financial position. More and more people are becoming migrant workers, shifting from one country to another, either to seek work or progress to a better job.

Economic globalisation has triggered a rapid increase in cross-border movement of both goods and people, especially over the last two decades or so and human capital has become more flexible than ever. Foreign workers are increasingly common in certain countries (for example, in some Western European countries or the US).

Migrant workers are often concentrated within particular local economies, where they are helping to address labour and skills shortages in key sectors.

According to a survey released by Gallup (November 2009) around 16% (700 million adults) of the world’s population would like to permanently move to another country. If this happened the number of global migrants would more than quadruple.

There are about 686,000 official migrant workers in England at the moment (this is about 1.3% of the total population).

West Midlands employers make the Stonewall Top 100

Four West Midlands employers are featured in the 2010 Stonewall Top 100 Employers, showcasing Britain’s best employers for gay staff.

At number 19, West Midlands Police is the region’s top-rated employer for lesbian, gay and bisexual (LGB) people, and there is a first appearance in the top 100 for Warwickshire County Council (no. 88).

The region’s other top 100 ranked employers are Staffordshire Police (34) and Birmingham City Council (60), both of which have featured in previous years.

The top performing industrial sector is professional services, followed by police authorities and central government.

Entrepreneurial transition: the changing profile of ethnic minority business in the West Midlands

A recent report produced by the Minority Ethnic Enterprise Centre of Expertise (MEECOE) provides an invaluable insight into ethnic minority business (EMB) within West Midlands.

As residents and visitors to the West Midlands have all observed, the region is enriched by the prevalence and great variety of ethnic minority businesses. The report Ethnic Minority Businesses in the West Midlands (PDF, 992kb) looks at the traditional view of these enterprises and how they are changing as second and third-generation members of ethnic groups are exhibiting entrepreneurial transition.

Adults who live in areas with higher concentrations of historic environment are likely to have a stronger sense of place

Research launched by English Heritage has found a significant link between an adult’s ‘sense of place’ and the concentration of historic environment assets within their area.

Sense of Place and Social Capital and the Historic Built Environment (pdf, 884kb), launched simultaneously with Heritage Counts 2009, involved surveys with 500 adults and 700 teenagers from across England.

Respondents were asked to score how strongly they agreed with a series of statements such as ‘I could be equally happy living elsewhere’ and ‘I am proud of where I live.’

Speakers announced for the 2009 conference

One month to go until the Observatory’s 2009 conference – “West Midlands: Fit for the Future?” – on Tuesday 20th October at the Ramada Hotel in Sutton Coldfield.

Book online or fax us a booking form

Entitled “West Midlands: Fit for the Future?”, the conference will follow on from a book of the same name launched by the Observatory in July. The focus will be on the economic recovery of the region, rather than the recession, and how we position the West Midlands to ‘hit the ground running’. Delegates will be encouraged to discuss issues raised in the book and influence development of the evidence base to inform the Single Regional Strategy.

Invitation to ONS 2011 Census outputs consultation event in Leicester

The next full census of England and Wales will take place in 2011. It includes a number of new approaches which will be evaluated during a rehearsal on 11th October 2009 with around 135,000 selected households in three local authority areas.

The Census Rehearsal will test, among other things, the questions being asked, the accuracy of the address list for posting out questionnaires and the new internet services for getting help and completing questionnaires online.

Planning and preparation for the outputs from the 2011 Census is continuing with a series of roadshows in October 2009 to formally start the consultation on outputs.

Along with the original event locations across England, an additional event will now be held at the Marriott Hotel in Leicester on Monday 12th October Thursday 22nd October.