Centre for Cities update annual index of UK cities

The Centre for Cities have published Cities Outlook 2011 (pdf, 2.4mb), identifying the UK cities best placed for a private sector-led recovery.

According to the report, five cities to watch are Milton Keynes, Reading, Aberdeen, Leeds and Bristol. These cities have high potential to create private sector jobs and are less vulnerable to public sector job losses and spending cuts.

The report identifies five vulnerable cities that may not gain the benefits of national economic recovery for some time: Sunderland, Liverpool, Birkenhead, Swansea and Newport.

Performance of large cities, including Birmingham, will remain crucial in providing private sector jobs.

Related links

• Download the full report (pdf, 2.4mb)
• Centre for Cities press release
• City by city data

Local Enterprise Partnerships need to act to reinvigorate the private sector

Weaknesses in the structure of the West Midlands economy mean that it was hit particularly hard by the recent recession and is likely to see further job losses over the next five years.

Our latest briefing paper (pdf, 408kb), produced as part of our West Midlands Skills Assessment 2010, reveals that the West Midlands has a weaker private sector than other parts of the country. The West Midlands has poorer representation of higher value added activities and high growth firms with the potential to create new, skilled jobs.

As a result the West Midlands has seen its share of jobs in the public sector rise more rapidly than anywhere else in the country. It is particularly vulnerable to job losses from the spending cuts announced by the government.

We forecast that West Midlands Gross Value Added (GVA) will grow by only 8% (£8.8 billion) between 2010 and 2015 and there will be a net fall in employment of more than 38,000 people.

How can small and medium businesses prepare against climate change?

Photo: Worcester bridge by Russell Trow

Climate change has an impact on businesses. Flooding, hot summers, droughts and severe storms and winds can damage business premises and disrupt suppliers and customers.

Here are just a few examples:

• Business directly impacted by the 2007 floods took an average of 26 weeks to return to normal operating capacity. Some small businesses can take up to two years to recover from a flood – and some do not survive.

• Rail commuters in Birmingham endured extensive delays on 17 July 2006 as the extreme heat caused railway lines to buckle. Many services from New Street Station in Birmingham had to be cancelled and some passengers had to wait more than two hours.

• The flooding in July 2007 was caused by a month’s rainfall in 1–2 hours and caused interruptions to electricity and water supplies, and significant disruption to road and rail networks.

• After the flooding in June and July 2007, insurers received 165,000 claims in the UK, estimated to total £3bn in insured damages. Economic and social costs were far higher, as not all costs to businesses can be insured.

The West Midlands Climate Change Adaptation Partnership knows that it is crucial that businesses understand the consequences of climate change. This is why they released a practical guide explaining how small and medium businesses in the West Midlands can save and make money from climate change (pdf, 357kb).

Planning and being prepared are the way forward as opposed to just reacting whenever disaster hits. This will allow businesses to save money in the long term, continue operations in spite of the weather and identify potential business opportunities.

The guide provides a series of questions that business should consider around:

• Insurance
• Premises
• People
• Utilities
• Information technology and security of data
• Suppliers, logistics and delivery and products
• Processes, stock and raw materials
• Agricultural and horticultural rural business
• Emergency contacts and important documents

The guide also provides examples of opportunities for small businesses, useful tools and contact details of regional support available.

Photo credit: Worcester bridge by Russell Trow.

Inward investment into the West Midlands 2009/10 – a local analysis

In 2009/10 there were 84 inward investment successes in the West Midlands and another four knowledge-based investments. These investments created over 1,500 new jobs and safeguarded another 4,300.

Although these 88 investments represented the lowest number of jobs created or safeguarded since 1992/93, they also represented the 7th highest total number of projects since 1991.

Inward investment is usually spread reasonably evenly between the West Midlands metropolitan areas and the shire counties. In 2009/10 the shire counties attracted the majority of inward investment projects (55%). See left.

However, the metropolitan areas of Birmingham, Coventry, Solihull, Dudley, Sandwell, Walsall and Wolverhampton have attracted perhaps just over half of the projects over the years – see below. The number of jobs created and safeguarded also generally follows a similar pattern.

A tough year for inward investment in the West Midlands

In 2009/10 there were 84 inward investment successes in the West Midlands and another four knowledge-based investments. These investments created over 1,500 new jobs and safeguarded another 4,300.

Of these 88 successes, Advantage West Midlands were involved with just under half but this assistance helped create over 60% of the new jobs.

Some of these inward investments were high-profile including Kraft’s acquisition of Cadbury in Bournville, Birmingham affecting nearly 3,000 employees at their head office as well many more around the country.

Other investments in the news included the acquisition of Birmingham City Football Club by Far Eastern businessman Carson Yeung’s Grandtop International, the continued expansion of the ex-Longbridge car plant by SAIC of China where a new engine test facility is to be built and the taking on 50 skilled engineers by Indian Tata Group’s Jaguar Land Rover.

Some other notable inward investments included:

• Expansion of Japanese tool-maker Makita‘s manufacturing facility in Telford, which created 70 jobs
• Expansion of TK Maxx‘s distribution depot in Newcastle-under-Lyme, Staffordshire, which created 100 jobs
• FourStar from the Netherlands is to open a new UK headquarters in Birmingham employing over 250 people to provide employment and skills training to the unemployed

Two other investments from the United States also catch the eye. Remotec in Coventry, a subsidiary of Northrup Grumman, expanded its facility designing and manufacturing robotic bomb disposal units.

But it’s the opening of a new computer games design studio in Digbeth, Birmingham by Microsoft-owned Rare Games that’s hoped will give a boost to games design in the Midlands. 90 new games designers will be employed there.

Analysis of West Midland inward investment

Further analysis of the inward investment figures show that, with 88 investments, 2009/10 saw the fewest number of investments in the  West Midlands since 2005/06 when investment numbers were still recovering from the falls in global investment since 2001. This highlights the fact that the global economic crisis began to seriously affect investment decisions.

New support aims to help young people “Think Enterprise”

At its launch last month, the 3% campaign – developed by the Young People’s Enterprise Centre of Expertise – outlined its ambitious aim to create 5,000 young entrepreneurs by 2012.

The campaign, backed by Advantage West Midlands and Business Voice WM,  was based on research highlighting a number of barriers young people face when it comes to starting a business and accessing support in the West Midlands.

The research found that:

• Relatively small amounts of funding can be instrumental in enabling young people to start productive businesses, but there is a gap in provision for those who do not meet the Prince’s Trust deprivation criteria or those not on student enterprise schemes.
• Young entrepreneurs have short work histories and require business advisers and mentors who have relevant business experience to provide essential knowledge.
• Young entrepreneurs highlighted the loneliness of working on their own when starting a business and the need for a pro-active support network.
• Application forms for support are perceived as excessively bureaucratic and jargon-laden, deterring young entrepreneurs not familiar with the terminology and business.
• Although a culture change is reported, many of our young skilled entrepreneurs are entirely disengaged from school.
• Enterprise activities in schools are highly valued and supported, with the emphasis on getting young entrepreneurs involved in the Further Education sector.

Transformational change can generate substantial new jobs in West Midlands over next five years

The pace of economic growth in the West Midlands over the next five years is forecast to be modest. Only 11,000 net new jobs (representing growth of 5% in total employment) are expected to be created between 2010 and 2015.

However, the Observatory’s new report The West Midlands economy post recession: key issues and challenges (pdf, 844kb) includes scenarios illustrating the benefits for the West Midlands in terms of new job creation — if action is taken to support fundamental, transformational change.

Scenario one: up-skilling the workforce within existing businesses

If workforce skill levels in the West Midlands were raised to match the England average, it’s estimated that net increase in employment over the next five years would almost double to around 21,000 jobs.

The main beneficiaries would be sectors where skill gaps and shortages act as a significant constraint on growth, such as:

• ICT
• High value added business & professional services
• Wholesale & retail distribution
• Transport

Scenario two: up-skilling plus diversification of the economy

If more businesses in higher value added sectors and clusters were also attracted to the West Midlands, such that their share of GVA matched the England average, the impact would be much more significant with the creation of more than 200,000 net new jobs.

High value added activities such as high value added business & professional services (where more than 100,000 net new jobs would be created) and ICT (30,000 net new jobs) are notable beneficiaries.

There would also be modest increases in employment levels in engineering (nearly 3,000 net new jobs) and manufacturing (nearly 6,000 net new jobs).

Related links

Read more about the future of the West Midlands economy in our report:

• The West Midlands economy post recession: key issues and challenges (pdf, 844kb)
• Dataset: xls, 136kb | Available on Google Docs

Only modest economic growth is forecast for the West Midlands over the next 5 years

A continuing under–representation of higher value added sectors means that the pace of economic growth in the West Midlands over the next five years is forecast to be modest.

Gross Value Added (GVA)

The Observatory’s new report The West Midlands economy post recession: key issues and challenges (pdf, 844kb) forecasts GVA to grow by just 11% (£9 billion) between 2010–2015. This compares with growth of 15% (£11 billion) between 2000–2007.

While the pace of growth is forecast to be strongest in higher value added private sector activities (such as ICT & telecoms and high value added business & professional services), they account for only a limited share of GVA. Growth is expected to be much weaker in sectors that dominate the regional economy such as lower value added, traditional private sector activities and the public sector.

Geographically, GVA is forecast to grow most strongly (by some 13% between 2010–2015) in areas identified as those with potential to lead the region’s recovery such as Solihull, Warwick and Stratford-on-Avon.

The weakest growth (less than 9% over the period) is expected in areas identified as having long-term issues that may inhibit recovery such as Wolverhampton, Walsall, Stoke-on-Trent and Sandwell.

Recovery from the recession remains fragile in the West Midlands

According to recent research by the Observatory, recovery from the recession has been fragile. After rising in the second half of 2009, recruitment activity faltered in the early months of 2010.

Geographically, the areas expected to experience the most fragile economic recovery in terms of growth in GVA and jobs are traditional industrial areas, such as the Black Country and Stoke-on-Trent. These areas have historically been dependent on industries such as engineering, manufacturing and construction.

Recovery is expected to be strongest in areas clustered in the south and east of the West Midlands, in Solihull and Warwickshire. These areas benefit from a strong presence of high value added knowledge-based industries,  good communication links and environmental quality.

The pace of economic growth in the West Midlands over the next five years (2010–2015) is forecast to be modest. GVA is forecast to grow by 11% (£9 billion) over the period. This compares with growth of 15% (£11 billion) between 2000–2007.

Weaknesses in the West Midlands economy act as a drag on future prospects

There’s a need to drive sustainable economic growth in the West Midlands, which in turn can foster the investment and business success that will create job growth. This requires giving priority to growth sectors and the development of a world class skills base.

However, the Observatory’s new report, The West Midlands economy post recession: key issues and challenges (pdf, 844kb), highlights continuing under representation of higher value added sectors.

Lower value added private sector activities such as low value business services, wholesale and retail, hotels and catering, and cultural, recreational and sporting activities make a particularly significant contribution to the regional economy. These account for more than half of GVA and employment.

Share of employment in the West Midlands by broad sector in 2008

Source: Office for National Statistics Annual Business Enquiry
Share this chart | Data on Google Docs

Traditional private sector industries such as engineering and transport technologies, other manufacturing activities such as the interiors and lifestyle, and food and drink clusters, construction and building technologies also make a significant contribution. So do public sector activities such as public administration, education, and health and social care.

These sectors are an important source of jobs for people with fewer skills and can play a key role in reducing worklessness and economic and social deprivation.

But reducing the dependence of the West Midlands economy on these activities and attracting and developing more businesses in higher value added sectors such as higher value added business & professional services, environmental technologies, digital media and medical technologies is key to improving the West Midlands’ economic performance and generating more new highly skilled jobs.

However, to date, these sectors have generated only limited levels of GVA and employment.

As a result, the private sector in the West Midlands has grown relatively slowly in recent years. Between 1998–2008 employment increased by just 30,000 (growth of 2% which compares to an increase of 19% across the UK as a whole).

Related links

• Full report: The West Midlands Economy Post Recession: Key Issues and Challenges (pdf, 844kb)
• Dataset: XLS, 136kb | Available on Google Docs

Research published on prospects for the West Midlands economy post recession

At the end of June, the Observatory published The West Midlands Economy Post Recession: Key Issues and Challenges (pdf, 844kb), a major piece of research exploring the changing needs of the region’s economy and labour market as it emerges from recession.

The research is informing the decisions of employers, individuals, providers and the skills system as they look to focus their investment in key areas to maximise impact.

Firstly, the research considers the region’s recent poor economic performance and the key factors that have contributed to this.

We detail the weaknesses within the region’s economic structure and, in particular, the dependence on public sector and lower value added private sector activities, in terms of GVA and jobs, and the limited representation of high value added, knowledge-based sectors.

We also highlight the low rates of productivity in many of the sectors that dominate the regional economy and assess the skill gaps and shortages businesses in the West Midlands face and the impact on productivity and performance.

Observatory enterprise and innovation team update: May 2010

This is the second post in a new series of weekly Observatory research updates; there will be one post from a different research team each week. We’re doing this in response to feedback we received in our recent website user survey. Please do get in touch with any feedback.

It’s rather a brief update from the Enterprise and Innovation team this month as during April and May we’ve been busy researching and compiling two interesting reports on different aspects of enterprise and employment in the West Midlands.

Aspirations of businesses in West Midlands

Our first piece of research is focused on uncovering emerging trends and issues related to aspirations of the region’s businesses and what is constraining their growth ambitions.

Our initial analysis is drawn from existing data following a scoping exercise to uncover what information sources were available on the topic. This proved particularly challenging; information regarding aspirations and barriers to growth is rather scarce. However, the report will outline a number of findings that we hope partners will find interesting.

Employment trends from Annual Business Inquiry data

Our second piece of research looks at trends in employment in the West Midlands using the latest Annual Business Inquiry data.

Initially reviewing the performance at a broad sector level, our report compares the trends of the West Midlands against the UK average and other regions.

The report also looks at the underlying drivers behind notable headline sector trends, providing in-depth analysis using the most detailed to Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes to fully examine what has been driving growth. Using predefined SIC groupings, the research looks at the recent trends in employment, the research looks at the recent trends in employment of high tech and knowledge intensive industries and Advantage West Midlands’ clusters. We also explore the breakdown of employment demographics.

We’ll publish these reports on the Observatory’s enterprise and innovation research pages in the coming weeks.

Continuing the legacy of the Women’s Enterprise Centre of Expertise

Thanks to Marla Nelson from the Strategic Women’s Enterprise Project for providing this guest post.

A new initiative has been launched in the West Midlands as a legacy project building on the work and findings of the Women’s Enterprise Centre of Expertise (WECOE).

The Strategic Women’s Enterprise Project is managed by Enterprise Solutions, who will continue to influence, lobby and advocate for the women’s enterprise agenda in the West Midlands region, funded by regional development agency Advantage West Midlands.

The project aims to assist Advantage West Midlands in implementing WECOE policy recommendations, and work with Business Link West Midlands and other key strategic partners to ensure policy and practice is mainstreamed in supporting greater diversity in enterprise and business support across the region.  The 2-year WECOE project completed in December 2009.

To find out more about the Strategic Women’s Enterprise Project, and Enterprise Solutions (MN), contact Marla Nelson at marla@enterprisesolutionsmn.com or call 07515 597 595.

Research on women’s enterprise in the West Midlands

In December 2009, the Women’s Enterprise Centre of Expertise (WECOE) held a dissemination event marking the end of their project on women’s enterprise.

The event gave a platform to a large range of speakers, from ministers of parliament to academic researchers.

Rosie Winterton MP reviewed the progress of government policy in the sphere of women’s enterprise, and indicated future policy directions.

Professor Mark Hart spoke of his work (Women and entrepreneurial activity in the West Midlands: evidence from GEM 2002-08, pdf, 287kb) with data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor which indicates that the primary factor hampering the development of women’s enterprise in the West Midlands is their disproportionate fear of failure. This is an important finding which suggests a clear direction for policy makers to take.

Entrepreneurial transition: the changing profile of ethnic minority business in the West Midlands

A recent report produced by the Minority Ethnic Enterprise Centre of Expertise (MEECOE) provides an invaluable insight into ethnic minority business (EMB) within West Midlands.

As residents and visitors to the West Midlands have all observed, the region is enriched by the prevalence and great variety of ethnic minority businesses. The report Ethnic Minority Businesses in the West Midlands (PDF, 992kb) looks at the traditional view of these enterprises and how they are changing as second and third-generation members of ethnic groups are exhibiting entrepreneurial transition.