Transformational change can generate substantial new jobs in West Midlands over next five years

The pace of economic growth in the West Midlands over the next five years is forecast to be modest. Only 11,000 net new jobs (representing growth of 5% in total employment) are expected to be created between 2010 and 2015.

However, the Observatory’s new report The West Midlands economy post recession: key issues and challenges (pdf, 844kb) includes scenarios illustrating the benefits for the West Midlands in terms of new job creation — if action is taken to support fundamental, transformational change.

Scenario one: up-skilling the workforce within existing businesses

If workforce skill levels in the West Midlands were raised to match the England average, it’s estimated that net increase in employment over the next five years would almost double to around 21,000 jobs.

The main beneficiaries would be sectors where skill gaps and shortages act as a significant constraint on growth, such as:

  • ICT
  • High value added business & professional services
  • Wholesale & retail distribution
  • Transport

Scenario two: up-skilling plus diversification of the economy

If more businesses in higher value added sectors and clusters were also attracted to the West Midlands, such that their share of GVA matched the England average, the impact would be much more significant with the creation of more than 200,000 net new jobs.

High value added activities such as high value added business & professional services (where more than 100,000 net new jobs would be created) and ICT (30,000 net new jobs) are notable beneficiaries.

There would also be modest increases in employment levels in engineering (nearly 3,000 net new jobs) and manufacturing (nearly 6,000 net new jobs).

Related links

Read more about the future of the West Midlands economy in our report:

Advertisements

Replacement demand set to be key source of jobs in West Midlands over next 5 years

An under–representation of higher value added sectors means that the pace of economic growth in the West Midlands over the next 5 years is forecast to be modest. Only 11,000 net new jobs (representing growth of 5% in total employment) are expected to be created between 2010 and 2015.

But the Observatory’s new report The West Midlands economy post recession: key issues and challenges (pdf, 844kb) predicts an additional 860,000 job vacancies are expected to arise between 2010-2015 due to ‘replacement demand.’

It’s estimated that nearly 510,000 jobs (58% of all job vacancies) will be due to labour turnover and more than 350,000 jobs (40% of all vacancies) will be due to older workers retiring.

Pie chart shows overall job vacancies forecast in West Midlands between 2010 and 2015

Text description of this chart available. Chart prepared by West Midlands Regional Observatory based on Cambridge Econometrics forecasts and Office for National Statistics Labour Force Survey.

Replacement demand is forecast to be more significant in traditional private sector industries and public sector activities which have an ageing workforce. For example:

  • 59,000 vacancies are expected to arise in manufacturing
  • 50,000 vacancies are expected to arise in engineering
  • 37,000 vacancies are expected to arise in construction

In health and social care, meanwhile, nearly 70,000 vacancies are expected to arise. The figure is more than 45,000 in education and more than 30,000 in public administration.

Many of the jobs on offer due to retirements are likely to require specific skills, qualifications and experience. Around 90% of these jobs are expected to be filled by people already in employment.

Continue reading

Only modest economic growth is forecast for the West Midlands over the next 5 years

A continuing under–representation of higher value added sectors means that the pace of economic growth in the West Midlands over the next five years is forecast to be modest.

Gross Value Added (GVA)

The Observatory’s new report The West Midlands economy post recession: key issues and challenges (pdf, 844kb) forecasts GVA to grow by just 11% (£9 billion) between 2010–2015. This compares with growth of 15% (£11 billion) between 2000–2007.

While the pace of growth is forecast to be strongest in higher value added private sector activities (such as ICT & telecoms and high value added business & professional services), they account for only a limited share of GVA. Growth is expected to be much weaker in sectors that dominate the regional economy such as lower value added, traditional private sector activities and the public sector.

Geographically, GVA is forecast to grow most strongly (by some 13% between 2010–2015) in areas identified as those with potential to lead the region’s recovery such as Solihull, Warwick and Stratford-on-Avon.

The weakest growth (less than 9% over the period) is expected in areas identified as having long-term issues that may inhibit recovery such as Wolverhampton, Walsall, Stoke-on-Trent and Sandwell.

Continue reading

Recovery from the recession remains fragile in the West Midlands

According to recent research by the Observatory, recovery from the recession has been fragile. After rising in the second half of 2009, recruitment activity faltered in the early months of 2010.

Geographically, the areas expected to experience the most fragile economic recovery in terms of growth in GVA and jobs are traditional industrial areas, such as the Black Country and Stoke-on-Trent. These areas have historically been dependent on industries such as engineering, manufacturing and construction.

Recovery is expected to be strongest in areas clustered in the south and east of the West Midlands, in Solihull and Warwickshire. These areas benefit from a strong presence of high value added knowledge-based industries,  good communication links and environmental quality.

The pace of economic growth in the West Midlands over the next five years (2010–2015) is forecast to be modest. GVA is forecast to grow by 11% (£9 billion) over the period. This compares with growth of 15% (£11 billion) between 2000–2007.

Continue reading

Weaknesses in the West Midlands economy act as a drag on future prospects

There’s a need to drive sustainable economic growth in the West Midlands, which in turn can foster the investment and business success that will create job growth. This requires giving priority to growth sectors and the development of a world class skills base.

However, the Observatory’s new report, The West Midlands economy post recession: key issues and challenges (pdf, 844kb), highlights continuing under representation of higher value added sectors.

Lower value added private sector activities such as low value business services, wholesale and retail, hotels and catering, and cultural, recreational and sporting activities make a particularly significant contribution to the regional economy. These account for more than half of GVA and employment.

Share of employment in the West Midlands by broad sector in 2008

Share of employment in the West Midlands by broad sector in 2008

Source: Office for National Statistics Annual Business Enquiry
Share this chart | Data on Google Docs

Traditional private sector industries such as engineering and transport technologies, other manufacturing activities such as the interiors and lifestyle, and food and drink clusters, construction and building technologies also make a significant contribution. So do public sector activities such as public administration, education, and health and social care.

These sectors are an important source of jobs for people with fewer skills and can play a key role in reducing worklessness and economic and social deprivation.

But reducing the dependence of the West Midlands economy on these activities and attracting and developing more businesses in higher value added sectors such as higher value added business & professional services, environmental technologies, digital media and medical technologies is key to improving the West Midlands’ economic performance and generating more new highly skilled jobs.

However, to date, these sectors have generated only limited levels of GVA and employment.

As a result, the private sector in the West Midlands has grown relatively slowly in recent years. Between 1998–2008 employment increased by just 30,000 (growth of 2% which compares to an increase of 19% across the UK as a whole).

Related links

Observatory enterprise and innovation team update: May 2010

This is the second post in a new series of weekly Observatory research updates; there will be one post from a different research team each week. We’re doing this in response to feedback we received in our recent website user survey. Please do get in touch with any feedback.

It’s rather a brief update from the Enterprise and Innovation team this month as during April and May we’ve been busy researching and compiling two interesting reports on different aspects of enterprise and employment in the West Midlands.

Aspirations of businesses in West Midlands

Our first piece of research is focused on uncovering emerging trends and issues related to aspirations of the region’s businesses and what is constraining their growth ambitions.

Our initial analysis is drawn from existing data following a scoping exercise to uncover what information sources were available on the topic. This proved particularly challenging; information regarding aspirations and barriers to growth is rather scarce. However, the report will outline a number of findings that we hope partners will find interesting.

Employment trends from Annual Business Inquiry data

Our second piece of research looks at trends in employment in the West Midlands using the latest Annual Business Inquiry data.

Initially reviewing the performance at a broad sector level, our report compares the trends of the West Midlands against the UK average and other regions.

The report also looks at the underlying drivers behind notable headline sector trends, providing in-depth analysis using the most detailed to Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes to fully examine what has been driving growth. Using predefined SIC groupings, the research looks at the recent trends in employment, the research looks at the recent trends in employment of high tech and knowledge intensive industries and Advantage West Midlands’ clusters. We also explore the breakdown of employment demographics.

We’ll publish these reports on the Observatory’s enterprise and innovation research pages in the coming weeks.

What is the low carbon economy?

The low carbon economy has increased its importance in recent years, but do you know what it means?

A low carbon economy is one where businesses deliver their products and services while, at the same time, they reduce their level of carbon emissions.

A question I’m often asked is ‘which are the sectors included in the low carbon economy?’.

However, it is not easy question to answer. The definition shows that the low carbon economy is not a list of sectors, but a distinctive characteristic that crosses over a wide range of sectors. As long as businesses achieve reductions in their carbon emissions, they are part of the low carbon economy.

In this sense, the low carbon economy is much more than just the traditional environmental products and services such as energy generation or electric cars.

The Observatory recently published a report about the Low Carbon Economy in the West Midlands. The research found that:

  • The low carbon economy can deliver opportunities across a wide range of business sectors, not just to those seen as being in the ‘traditionally’ environmental technologies sector.
  • The sectors with clear opportunities in the West Midlands include: Non-​metallic mineral goods; Automotive & transport equipment; Metals & metal products; Construction; Environmental Goods & Services; Food & beverages; Transport, storage & communications; and Public services.
  • Businesses can benefit from the low carbon economy in two ways: diversify into new low carbon products or become more efficient in their current processes (decarbonise).

The West Midlands has an important manufacturing legacy and businesses in this sector are already taking part in the low carbon economy by increasing their efficiency related to processes, resources, utilities and waste.

Evidence supporting this is presented in Measuring Performance – Environment Survey 2009, a report produced by EEF.

The survey asked about environmental issues across manufacturing companies in the UK. The survey identified that businesses are increasingly aware of the benefits to gain by adopting resource efficiency improvements.

Key findings include:

  • Manufacturers are adopting a range of environmental strategies mainly around recycling, reduction of business waste and energy efficiency improvements
  • Manufacturers have reported cost savings from adopting environmental strategies

The low carbon economy can be the vehicle with which the West Midlands can achieve economic growth without compromising our natural environment. Would you like to take part in it?