The pace of economic growth in the West Midlands over the next five years is forecast to be modest. Only 11,000 net new jobs (representing growth of 5% in total employment) are expected to be created between 2010 and 2015.
However, the Observatory’s new report The West Midlands economy post recession: key issues and challenges (pdf, 844kb) includes scenarios illustrating the benefits for the West Midlands in terms of new job creation — if action is taken to support fundamental, transformational change.
Scenario one: up-skilling the workforce within existing businesses
If workforce skill levels in the West Midlands were raised to match the England average, it’s estimated that net increase in employment over the next five years would almost double to around 21,000 jobs.
The main beneficiaries would be sectors where skill gaps and shortages act as a significant constraint on growth, such as:
- High value added business & professional services
- Wholesale & retail distribution
Scenario two: up-skilling plus diversification of the economy
If more businesses in higher value added sectors and clusters were also attracted to the West Midlands, such that their share of GVA matched the England average, the impact would be much more significant with the creation of more than 200,000 net new jobs.
High value added activities such as high value added business & professional services (where more than 100,000 net new jobs would be created) and ICT (30,000 net new jobs) are notable beneficiaries.
There would also be modest increases in employment levels in engineering (nearly 3,000 net new jobs) and manufacturing (nearly 6,000 net new jobs).
Read more about the future of the West Midlands economy in our report:
- The West Midlands economy post recession: key issues and challenges (pdf, 844kb)
- Dataset: xls, 136kb | Available on Google Docs
Filed under: Economy & Labour Force, Employment, Enterprise, Innovation, Research, Skills, West Midlands Tagged: | business sectors, economy, employment, forecasts, labour market, Skills, West Midlands economy, westmidlands, workforce