Subnational population projections

Anthony SzaryThe Observatory’s recent event to launch the State of the Region dialogue on population change started with a presentation from Anthony Szary on subnational population projections.

Anthony is the Regional Statistician for the Office for National Statistics and is based at the Observatory.

Anthony took the group through the ONS process for calculating population projections at the subnational level. The easy part (relatively!) of the calculation is to take account of trends in fertility and mortality while it’s much more difficult to try to measure trends in migration.

The latest population projections show that the West Midlands population is expected to grow by 11.4% between 2007 and 2027 to over 6 million. This is slower than the expected growth across many of the other English regions.  However, this projection is based on past trends in fertility, mortality and migration and could be very different if, for example, the birth rate became much higher or lower.
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