Future population growth in the City Region over the next 20 years – likely to be offset by out-migration?

Encouragingly the City Region has an increasingly young, diverse and growing working age population.

The area’s working age population is forecast to grow by just under 100,000 (6%) in the next 10 years and by more than 180,000 (11%) by 2028.

This growth is expected to be underpinned by a significant increase in the number of young people. Numbers of 0-15 year olds are expected to increase by more than 65,000 (12%) in the next decade and by nearly 84,000 (14%) by 2028.

Chart shows population projections in City Region between 2010 to 2031 for the working age population, people aged 0 to 15 years, and people of pension age

Source: Office for National Statistics, 2006-​​based population projections
Dataset: web page, CSV, XLS | Share: Interactive chart, image

The growth rates for the working age population are very similar in the West Midlands and the City Region.

Population growth is expected to be most significant in Birmingham with an increase of 36,000 (16%) in numbers of 0-15 year olds and of 49,000 (8%) in the working age population by 2019.

However, this rate of growth, while substantial, is less significant than in several other UK cities. In Manchester, for example, the working age population is expected to increase by 13% over the period.

The most significant increases elsewhere in the City Region are expected to be in Coventry, with a 13,000 (7%) increase in the working age population, and Sandwell with a 12,000 (7%) increase by 2019.

However, population growth is expected to be offset by the out-migration of working age adults, going elsewhere in the West Midlands, the rest of the UK and overseas.

This reflects the limited demand for higher level skills and creation of higher skilled jobs highlighted in a recent report, City Region Employment and Skills Assessment (pdf, 436kb), published by the Observatory. As a result the most skilled, qualified and ambitious local residents are likely to be migrating to other areas to live and work.

Related links

About the City Region

The City Region is a voluntary partnership between the local authorities of Birmingham, CoventryDudley, Sandwell, Solihull, Walsall and Wolverhampton; the West Midlands Regional Assembly, Advantage West Midlands, the regional Learning and Skills Council, and the business community.

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