The Observatory’s annual customer satisfaction survey is now officially underway. If you haven’t already received an invitation by email to take part, then we welcome you to take part in the survey.

The survey closes on Friday 17th July.

You can also sign up to receive our newsletters and invitations in future.

On 21st July, from 5pm to 7pm, the Observatory is holding a short drinks reception in central Birmingham to launch our book, “West Midlands: Fit for the Future?”

The book comprises ten chapters, written by ten different authors, reflecting their personal views on how the region can best place itself in readiness for the economic upturn, as well as highlighting any potential obstacles.

Our ultimate aim is to stimulate debate, promote discussion and influence policy on the future growth of the region. The focus is on the future prosperity of the West Midlands, rather than on the effects of the recession, exploring the region’s ability to maximise its potential as we move out of the downturn.

At our annual conference on 20th October, delegates will be encouraged to discuss and debate the issues raised in the book, and help develop an evidence-based action plan for the region.

If you would be interested in attending the launch event, please email info@wmro.org or call 0121 202 3250.

It’s just over 12 months since the re-launch of the Observatory’s website www.wmro.org. Since the re-launch last year, our range of research has widened and there is a new focus on particular themes.

To try and help visitors to our website more easily find the research and data they want, I’m considering how best to restructure the menu navigation.

To help in this, I’d really value your feedback on a proposed new menu structure for the website.

View draft menu structure at full size (PNG, 62kb)

Please add any comments to this post or contact me at the Observatory (e: gavin.wray at wmro.org, tel: 0121 202 3252).

Results of the first Place Survey were launched today providing information on people’s perceptions of their local area and the local services they receive.

The survey collects information on 18 national indicators for local government, used to measure local government performance for 152 county councils, metropolitan district councils, London boroughs and unitary authorities.

Communities Secretary John Denham said the results of the Place Survey—based on more than 500,000 people’s views and perceptions about where they live—demonstrates the importance of listening to local people and what they want for their local area.

The national headlines from the survey are:

• 80 per cent are satisfied with their local area as a place to live.
• 45 per cent were, taking everything into account, satisfied with the way their local council runs things.
• 33 per cent agreed or strongly agreed that their local council provided value for money.
• 29 per cent felt they could influence decisions in their local area.
• 27 per cent would like to be more involved in decisions affecting their community.
• In the last 12 months, 14 per cent of the population had been involved in local decision making.

Within the West Midlands things follow a similar pattern.

78% of people surveyed in the region were satisfied with their area as a place to live.

Three quarters of people in the region felt that their area was a place that people from different backgrounds could get on.

As with the national picture, less than a third agreed or strongly agreed that their local council provided value for money.

The Place Survey is a major national survey of what the public think of where they live and their local council. It is a key way of assessing public perceptions and one way that government is checking whether councils are meeting their performance targets.

The survey is available on www.communities.gov.uk.

I attended a session on crowdsourcing public policy at the recent LocalGovCamp event, an unconference for local government held in Birmingham.

Crowdsourcing is the act of taking a task traditionally performed by employees or contractors and opening it out to a large group of people. It’s mass collaboration to collectively achieve a task or refine something that already exists into something better.

David Price led an interesting session on crowdsourcing policy, demonstrating how Debategraph—a global debate map—can be used to:

• Set up a policy debate
• Open the debate to enable others to collaborate
• Graphically visualise the issues and inter-relationships within a debate
• Share and re-use the debates both on and offline

Here are David’s slides:

…and here is an example of a Debategraph in action.

Independent readers and the Debategraph community are collaboratively visualising intelligence to comprehensively map issues surrounding climate change before states begin formally negotiating a new international treaty to tackle global warming.

Evolving consultation

Thinking closer to home, Debategraph struck me as a potential step forward along the path of evolving online consultation, a path which has rapidly changed in the last 12 months.

Roughly, these are the steps I’ve seen:

1. We’ve had consultations as lengthy, inaccessible PDF documents posted up on websites inviting return comments by email. They’re difficult to use and a surefire way to get a low response.
2. Harry Metcalfe and Steph Gray of the Department for Business, Innovation & Skills (DBIS) came up with ConsultationXML, a way for web publishers to convert “horrid” PDF data into meaningful XML. The resulting XML can then be transformed into HTML which is then used to develop consultation websites for users to interact with.
3. Large consultation documents can be broken up into chunks and displayed on a website deliberately structured to encourage commenting. WordPress was used as platform for the plain English version of Birmingham’s Big City Plan. DBIS released the Commentariat WordPress theme under Crown Copyright, which you can see in action on this low carbon industrial strategy consultation.
4. … could this next step be visualised collaborative debate?

As Debategraph provides a definitive articulation of a debate—changes are iterative, open to anyone, can be rated and there are checks in place to prevent distortion by “blowhards” or commenters with an agenda—I think it might be interesting to see a debate where statistical evidence is involved.

It would be interesting to see emerging issues in a visualised debate of what people think inter-connected with the statistical evidence of what is actually happening.

Debategraph is a much larger world than I’ve been able to describe here. It’s also a creative commons project and ultimately a global graph of all debates, semantically interrelated. I’ve just used this post to jot down my ideas after the event.

Related links

• Debategraph
• Debategraph on Twitter
• Example debategraph: mapping the contours of climate change
• Lots more LocalGovCamp content

The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) were published last week. These projections deliver climate information forecasts for the UK and its regions. The purpose of the projections is to provide relevant evidence that can help society and the environment cope with climate change.

The key findings confirm that climate change is a real and challenging issue to face:

“All areas of the UK get warmer, and the warming is greater in summer than in winter. There is little change in the amount of precipitation (rain, hail, snow etc) that falls annually, but it is likely that more of it will fall in the winter, with drier summers, for much of the UK. Sea levels rise, and are greater in the south of the UK than the north.”

The Department of Energy and Climate Change and Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs will lead a programme of action to tackle climate change based on the following five fronts:

1. Protecting the public from immediate risks such as flooding, heat wave and coastal erosion just to mention a few.
2. Preparing for future scenarios through adaptation policies.
3. Limiting the severity of future climate change through a new international climate agreement.
4. Building a low carbon UK.
5. Support individuals, communities and businesses to play their part.

It’s the fourth point that gets my attention.

The West Midlands has been the leading region on this front. Connecting to Success, the West Midlands Regional Economic Strategy, has been recognised as the UK’s first low-carbon regional economic strategy.

Since then, the West Midlands has been focusing on delivering a low carbon economy which provides the unique opportunity to improve the productivity in the region while reducing the carbon emissions and tackling climate change.

At the Observatory we’ve been actively involved through providing evidence to assess the region’s progress in achieving a low carbon economy.

Our recent research related to low carbon and sustainable development includes:

• Understanding the West Midlands’ carbon gap (PDF, 334kb)
• Regional decoupling (PDF, 448kb)
• Regional index of sustainable economic wellbeing (PDF, 263kb)
• Climate change action plan monitoring (PDF, 967kb)

If you’re short of time or not sure where to start, try our synthesis report (PDF, 358kb) which pulls together the key findings from all our low carbon research.

New reseach has shown that two-thirds of UK workers with specialist skills are not using them in their professional careers.

The Western European Location Skills Audit undertaken by Oxford Intelligence covered eight ‘hard-to-find’ skill sets in ten countries.

The research showed that the UK ranks first in the Location Skills Index and either first or second in Technical IT, Engineering, Financial Services and Food Technologies.

When companies look to invest in Europe the availability of ‘highly skilled labour’ is consistently cited as a leading driver. However, the UK is under-utilising skilled workers to a higher degree than other countries.

According to the report, Britain has 3.2 million fluent language speakers yet only 31% are using that skill in their jobs.

2.6 million people have engineering skills yet usage at work is only at 42%.

This suggests that there are significant skill resources available in the country that are not being used.

Peter Lemagnen, MD of Oxford Intelligence, says that:

“The EU’s Lisbon Agenda in 2000 placed skills at the centre of Europe’s goal to be the most competitive knowledge-based economy, nine years on there seems to be a fundamental disconnect”

Recommendations from Oxford Intelligence for remedial initiatives include research into demographic factors, employer flexibility, commuting patterns, gender divide and links to academic achievement in order to maximise not only the uptake of high skills but their application.

Further information is available in this press release.

UKCP09 report

Today saw the publication of the long awaited UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09).

UKCP09 is the fifth time such climate information has been produced for the UK.

Funded by Defra, and based on sound science and projections provided by the Met Office, UKCP09 aims to meet the needs of a wide range of users who want to assess potential impacts of the future climate and explore adaptation options to address those impacts.

This year is the first time probabilistic projections of climate change based on quantification of the known sources of uncertainty have been produced. The projections can be viewed on the UKCP09 website.

The website provides key findings that can be viewed at regional level. Each region has analysis based on low, medium and high emissions scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080.

To support users in exploring potential impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation options, UKCP09 also offers two analytical tools:  a weather generator and a supportive threshold detector.

In launching the report Hilary Benn MP, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, said:

“There is no doubt about it – climate change is the biggest challenge facing the world today. Climate change is already happening – the hottest ten years on record globally have all been since 1990. This landmark scientific evidence shows not only that we need to tackle the causes of climate change but also that we must deal with the consequences.

The Projections will allow us to make sure we have a resilient infrastructure to cope – whether it’s the design of school buildings or protection of new power plants, maintaining the supply of drinking water, adjusting ways of farming for drier summers or understanding how our homes and businesses will have to adapt.”

You can watch Hilary Benn MP launch the projections:

Unemployment in the region grew by a further 39,000 in the three months to April 2009 and has now reached its highest level since 1994.

Data released yesterday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that there are now just under quarter of a million people (249,000) out of work in the region giving an unemployment rate of 9.3%.

This is the highest unemployment rate of all the English regions and 2 percentage points higher than the national rate of 7.3%. At 9.3%, the unemployment rate has increased by nearly 3 percentage points on the same period a year ago making the West Midlands the worst affected region.

The claimant count, the narrower measure of unemployment which is the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance, has also risen again although the increase is less than in previous months.

Between April and May 2009, the claimant count rose by 3,300 across the region bringing the number of claimants to 175,500. Although still rising, this is the smallest monthly increase since July 2008.

There are wide differences in the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance across Local Authorities within the region. We’ve updated our interactive map showing the proportion of the working age population claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance in each Local Authority to reflect the latest data (XLS, 25kb).

Wolverhampton and Birmingham continue to have the highest claimant rates in the West Midlands, although many areas have seen large rises in their claimant rates.

Further analysis of the latest headline statistics from the ONS is available on our website as well as several reports from our work on monitoring the impact of the recession.

Since I joined the Observatory I’m more aware of what is said about the West Midlands.

On 3rd June I attended the conference Skills and Knowledge for Sustainable Communities in London and was very pleased to find that one of the case studies mentioned related to the regeneration of Attwood Green in Birmingham.

I think it is nice to get recognition from other regions, but I believe it is even nicer to deliver valuable learning from the work done in our region.

The case study highlights:

the regeneration of Attwood Green is viewed by many as an innovative approach to urban renewal and may provide a good practice framework for similar projects.

The case study was developed by Napier University in Edinburgh – a summary (PDF, 762kb) is available.

Other projects from the joint research initiative discussed at the event are available from the University of Strathclyde. I’ve written more about this initiative in a previous post on a new approach to skills for sustainable communities.

However, I do not want to stop here. Key learning I took away from the day was not related to Attwood Green but to other relevant examples that must be happening in the region, and we do not hear too much about them.

Think about your organisation or your community. Is there anything happening there that can deliver valuable learning to others?

Would you like to share your successes and achievements with the region or even further?

I realised that this blog can be a perfect space to share, learn and celebrate what the West Midlands is achieving… what do you think?

No matter how big or small it is, if it delivers learning I’d love to hear about it. Please can you take the time to add a comment to this post.

As I said before, it would be nice to get recognition from other regions, but I believe it would be even nicer to deliver valuable learning from the work done in our region.

Photo by epSOS.de

The Observatory presented its Integrated Policy Model to delegates at the third ESRC Complex Systems Research Seminar at Cranfield School of Management on 10th June 2009.

The seminar, Modelling for Policy Decisions, was organised by the London School of Economics Complexity Research Centre. The event featured presentations from leading academics on the importance of understanding the complex and dynamic interdependencies between factors.

Prof. Brian Collins, Chief Scientific Advisor to the Department for Transport presented on the need to understand the many factors that impact through infrastracture.

Lucian Hudson, a senior communications advisor to several Government departments, explained the important aspects for successful collaboration.

Delegates also heard details of the OMEGA Aerospace project and the research into aviation and potential impacts for climate change.

Brian MacAulay from the Observatory and Richard Lewney from Cambridge Econometrics outlined the development and delivery of the Integrated Policy Model project,  acknowledged as the first model of its type. Brian also led a workshop exploring ideas for future economic modelling and how such a project would benefit from collaborative working between academe, public sector and business.

The seminar provided an excellent platform to showcase the model to leading practitioners in related modelling fields. The Integrated Policy Model represents a major advance in the capacity for regional policy analysis. It will provide:

• An accessible, interactive tool for policy makers and analysts
• A unified framework for exploring the implications of key regional strategies
• A scenario testing function that will help greater understanding of direct and indirect impacts that emerge over time
• A mapping tool that presents a unified framework for small local areas building up to local authority and regional levels

When: 9th & 10th July 2009
Where: The pUBLIC, West Bromwich
How much: £50
More info: Download flyer (PDF, 95kb)

In the tradition of Sandwell Health’s Other Economic Summit (SHOES), this event will be examining how local issues can impact on world health and how global issues affect us.

The conference will focus on a number of themes around the credit crunch, poverty, welfare rights, time banks and healthcare for those lucky enough to receive it.

Keynote speakers include: Anna Coote, Sustainable Development Commissioner for Health and New Economics, Foundation Health Lead, Sir Iain Chalmers, and Dr Nick Banatvala, Head of the Department of Health’s International Division.

Download a flyer (PDF, 95kb) or email shoes@sandwell-pct.nhs.uk for more details.

Until the end of June 2009, West Midlands life sciences companies have an unprecedented opportunity to tell the Government what it can do to help them succeed, as medical and healthcare industry specialist MedilinkWM launches the Voices of Industry Campaign.

Designed to give companies in the Life Sciences sector a united voice and combined influence, the Voices of Industry Campaign aims to deliver a proposal of crucial initiatives that the Government could implement to make an immediate impact on the prosperity of the sector.

Just two weeks ago Government and the Treasury stated that Life Sciences (the combination of medical technologies, healthcare, diagnostics, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology) forms the largest sector within the gross domestic product (GDP) of the UK.

Government has recognised Life Sciences as one of the three most important drivers of economic growth in Britain—followed by renewable technologies and the digital economy—to trade our way out of recession.

In response to this the Office of Life Sciences, headed up by Lord Drayson, is committed to delivering tangible, valuable investment and support for companies within just 12 months and has issued a challenge to industry to discover what steps can be taken to improve access to finance for SMEs and to stimulate investment.

MedilinkWM’s CEO Tony Davis has been a driving force in highlighting the needs and demands of industry in his role on committees reporting to the Office of Life Sciences, and the Voices of Industry Campaign aims to provide practical suggestions to directly solve many of the current issues.

Tony Davis said:

The Government has set us an urgent challenge, so we’re responding immediately by asking industry for its views and ideas. The Government is asking for ways it can help life science companies right now – let’s make sure they know what SMEs really need to thrive. It’s essential that every professional working in this sector looks at what the Government could do to make it easier for them to grow their business and unleash their entrepreneurial flair.

This sector has the potential to receive an influx of investment to ensure some short-term success stories and positive stories about the economy. I’ve been working to ensure that SMEs can benefit from this investment and become a strong success story themselves. The Voices of Industry campaign is here to give smaller industry an influential voice that reflects its combined strength and economic importance.

In a report for the Ministerial Medical Technology Strategy Group the need for action to support SMEs was identified in four key areas:

• Access to the US market
• Knowledge transfer and networking
• Access to finance and access to the UK market
• NHS clinical key opinion leaders

In two of these, the country’s Medilink network has been recommended for further investment to build more capacity to support SMEs in the medical technology sector.

Throughout June 2009, professionals involved in the life sciences sector are invited to participate on the Voices of Industry site, where they can respond to topics, register approval, send an email or upload an audio clip of their thoughts.

The campaign’s progress will be tracked in real time on the site as it gathers support across the West Midlands:

Comments added to Voices of Industry Campaign

The campaign for engagement culminates on 24th June 2009 with a high-powered, dynamic roundtable at the Medical Technology Innovation Centre in Edgbaston, to scrutinise every idea and suggestion submitted.

The resulting proposal will be presented by Tony Davis to the Department for Business Innovation and Skills (formerly BERR) and the Science and Innovation Minister Ian Pearson on 30th June 2009.

For more information, please contact Lisa Jones at Reeves Green on 01543 250505 / 07890 609933 or email lisa.jones@reeves-green.co.uk

Thanks to Awen Clement at Medilink West Midlands for providing this post.

Members of the Pan Government Agreement (PGA2) including Advantage West Midlands and other Regional Development Agencies, DEFRA, Natural England and Communities and Local Government have signed up for access to national layers of aerial photography and height layers from The Next Perspectives Consortium led by Infoterra UK Ltd.

Available to download (and for PGA licensed organisations), these layers can be used for a whole host of applications in supporting the work of the organisations. We hope this brief article exemplifies how other government departments are using the information and will provide some ideas on how to best exploit the data.

English Partnerships: development visualisation

By integrating the height layers provided under the agreement with the imagery, English Partnerships created these stunning visuals relatively quickly and cost effectively.

By overlaying the aerial photography on the height model, English Partnerships created a visual aid to development consultation in Stoke-on-Trent:

Using height data, English Partnerships created 3D images which allow understanding of proposed schemes and provides a more effective route for client engagement in Stoke-on-Trent:

Using height data, English Partnerships created 3D images which assisted development visualisation and consultation for the regeneration of Plymouth dockside:

English Heritage: promotion, visualisation and interpretation

English Heritage have begun to use the layers provided for a range of applications. From support of teams in the field reviewing and understanding the historic landscape, to promoting individual sites to members of the public, their range of applications of the data is ever expanding.

By overlaying the aerial photography on the height model, English Heritage created stunning graphics to aid site promotion to the general public.

Here’s an example of imagery downloaded onto a PDA and used for in-field mapping:

Infoterra: mapping land-cover and likely change of land-use

For some time a range of clients have required detailed information on the changing use of our landscape. This has required accurate information on current use and a means to compare historically in order to understand change over time.

Infoterra, on behalf of a number of clients, have been working on methodologies for such work. Using the data layers available under PGA2, urban change can be mapped to help understand development effects on the environment, including flood risk, habitat and planning.

Here are some recent examples of some of the exciting developments within this field.

The example below shows how change can be mapped automatically, highlighting in this case loss of vegetated surface to road, housing, patios and other paved surfaces:

By integrating the results of analysis with OS mapping, information can be created that works simply and effective throughout an organisation.

Here’s an example of how data from the imagery can be merged with national mapping from the OS. In this example, land-cover information has been stored at a property level thus allowing links to strategic developments and initiatives:

These are just three example areas of the potential use of the aerial photography and height data available through the PGA2 (and through other license routes). Depending on specific needs, there are many other applications that can benefit from this data.

For more information, contact Infoterra directly.

Thanks to Andy Wells at Infoterra for contributing this article and for sponsoring the Geographic Information newsletter.

What are electoral reviews and why do one?

Electoral reviews are undertaken periodically and their main aim is to ensure that ‘electoral equality’ is maintained, meaning that all councillors in a single authority represent approximately the same number of electors.

Reviews are needed if there has been a lot of new development in an area which results in an increase in the numbers of electors or (as in the case of Shropshire) if a new authority is formed which has a different number of councillors, to ensure there are fair arrangements in place for the first elections to the new authority.

Shropshire electoral review

In preparation for becoming a unitary authority, Shropshire Council and the Boundary Committee for England carried out a review of local government electoral arrangements for Shropshire.

The electoral divisions of the former Shropshire County Council and the electoral wards of the former five district councils ceased to exist when Shropshire became a unitary authority on 1st April 2009.

The Committee looked at the number of councillors to be elected to the new council and also the boundaries of the individual areas they will represent. The new arrangements were selected and in place in time for the elections which were held on 4th June 2009.

All of the electoral divisions in Shropshire have changed, and the Council now has 63 electoral divisions which are represented by 74 local councillors (some areas have 2 councillors and one has 3).

How was this achieved?

Throughout the Shropshire electoral review ArcGIS 9.2 was used extensively to map boundaries, the electorate and dwelling completions.

All the calculations used in the forecasting process were also done using ArcGIS and the modelling function was used to carry out repetitive processes when producing each option.

Step 1: mapping existing boundaries

Initially a new shape file of boundaries was created for Shropshire to identify the constituent areas of the existing parishes and district wards.

This was achieved by overlaying the shape files of the existing district wards and parishes and creating an intersect shape file of parish wards. Each area was given a unique code, which was a combination of the parish and ward code.

Step 2: mapping the electorate

The district electoral rolls were geocoded in Access by matching the addresses against Address Point and the Local Land and Property Gazetteer and then mapped in ArcGIS.

The number of electors in each of the parish wards was calculated by joining the parish ward to the electorate shape file using the intersect function.

The electorate file was then summarised on the parish ward code to provide the total electors in each of these areas.

Step 3: mapping housing completions

The number of housing completions expected in the next five years was estimated, on a site by site basis, with the help of local planning officers. These were also mapped and summarised for parish wards in the same way as the electorate.

Dwelling completions were used in this study since they were thought to be the most robust method of estimating increases in the numbers of electors over the short term because other data, which might have been used to forecast increases in electors, was not available for small areas (i.e. migration data).

This method is simplistic but tight timescales precluded the possibility of developing a more sophisticated method.

An average number of electors per dwelling was calculated and applied to the number of new dwelling completions expected.

Housing developments

Step 4: forecasting elector numbers

The modelling function of ArcGIS was used to calculate an elector forecast and variance from the average.

An elector forecast is calculated to ensure that elector equality is maintained over the next five years or that areas are moving towards elector equality since this is one of the principle factors to consider in an electoral review. Otherwise, you may have to undertake more frequent reviews to redraw boundaries to maintain equality.

For example, some areas may be below the average number of electors to start with but in five years time would reach the average because of an increase in electors arising from new housing development.

Screenshot of model used within ArcGIS

Step 5

Once the Council size had been determined, a great number of options were produced in discussion with local members and parish councils.

Attribute fields were added to the parish ward shape file for each option and the dissolve by attribute function was used in ArcGIS to create an Electoral Division shape file for each option, along with a count of electors and completions in each area.

Maps were produced for each of the options and reproduced as paper copies or PDFs for consultation.

ArcGIS proved to be an invaluable tool to test options efficiently and to extremely tight deadlines.

Find out more

The Boundary Committee’s final recommendations and maps are available on Shropshire Council’s site.

View all the reports relating to the Shropshire review.

Further information on the role of the Electoral Commission and Boundary Committee.

Thanks to Juliet Lane, Information & Research Manager at Shropshire Council for providing this article.

The West Midlands Regional Observatory is an excellent example of cross-organisation and cross-departmental working, according to a recent case study by the Improvement & Development Agency (I&DeA).

According to the study, the Observatory is a rich resource providing information, knowledge and expertise to a range of audiences.

As with many other areas and organisations, ‘silo working’ was resulting in duplication of effort and knowledge not being shared within the West Midlands. The Observatory set up a range of themed networking and data groups to overcome this and engage partners throughout the West Midlands region. The range of organisations involved in these groups is central to the continued success of the Observatory.

The Geographical Information (GI) topic group was one of the first network groups set up. This group gives technical advice to the Observatory and associated groups on how GI software and techniques can be used to interpret information and map data.

The GI group has produced many valuable sections for the Observatory’s website, including:

• Quick guides to collecting spatial data
• Background to national projects, such as the Mapping Services Agreement
• Interactive maps

Read the full case study on the IDeA website

If you would like more information on the GI group, or any of the Observatory’s network and data groups, contact Oliver Nicholls.

Example INTAMAP interpolation (centre) of Nitrogen dioxide measurements across the UK

If there were a nuclear accident in Europe, how would those responsible for disaster response know where to focus attention? And how would they access the right information to make fast and accurate decisions?

Aston University are collaborating with eight other European partners to deliver INTAMAP (Interoperability and Automated Mapping Project), which will provide emergency response decision makers with the complex data and information they need over the internet in a usable format… fast.

So, in the case of a nuclear accident, for example, they could use INTAMAP to make the right decisions quickly.

The existence of the internet has revolutionised our ability to gather data from around the globe and make decisions based on a wide variety of observations. Through the internet, huge and diverse datasets can be pulled together, whether for comparing insurance quotes or assessing tornado damage in a remote area.

Decision makers don’t just need raw numbers though – they need to be able to analyse and combine different pieces of (potentially conflicting) evidence in order to make the best choices.

For example, data from radiation monitoring sensors across the whole of Europe might be quickly gathered in case of a nuclear accident, in order to work out which areas exceed the danger threshold, and should thus be evacuated.

However, sensors are expensive to install and maintain, so there will be many locations at which an accurate radiation value is not known. In this case, it’s necessary to use powerful algorithms to interpolate between the data points. In other words, to try and predict the radiation levels and associated risks at locations that aren’t being monitored.

Traditionally, such an interpolation would be done using a specialised software application installed on a desktop but recent developments in web technology mean that such applications can be accessed remotely, through standardised mechanisms known as “web services”.

The application itself is located on a web server (just like an email application or an online database), and can be called from any other computer on the network (using HTTP, the standard internet protocol).

So, for example, if Photoshop was exposed as a web service, and you have the URL (internet address) for that web service, you can access and use complex image editing functions over the web without the need to install or upgrade any desktop application.

In the radiation example, the locations and radiation levels from the sensor network could be sent to an interpolation web service from any computer, and a map of likely radiation values covering the whole of Europe could be sent back.

The INTAMAP project is about allowing just this sort of fast and reliable interpolation, by using web services to expose complex algorithms based on Bayesian statistical approaches, which might not usually be accessible to decision makers. The algorithms are made available to any device that is connected to the internet. The sensor readings themselves might also be supplied by a web service, so it’s possible to use the outputs of a chain of web services without having to have a powerful machine or expensive licensed software in front of you.

One thing you may have noticed about the example of a radiation emergency is that the system produces maps of ‘likely radiation’. This might not sound particularly encouraging in an emergency situation, since surely we want an accurate picture? But, paradoxically, recognising that information will never be perfect allows safer decisions to be made, since the effects of chance and uncertainty can be properly addressed.

All data is uncertain, whether because of faults and biases in the measuring equipment, or because—in the case of interpolation—a value has had to be inferred from nearby points. If a user has a good idea of how reliable the data is, (say, how well a sensor usually performs) they can decide on the appropriate level of caution, generating best and worst-case scenarios in order to decide policy and action. Value can be added to the predicted maps by recording how reliable the estimate of radiation is at every location. As part of the INTAMAP project, a language called UncertML has been developed, which allows detailed information on data uncertainty to be exchanged and communicated automatically between machines and Web Services.

The INTAMAP project is now in its third year, and has brought together significant expertise from across Europe. There is growing interest in industry both in web services and in how a good idea of uncertainty can lead to more sensible and robust decisions.

Aston University plan, through further research and collaboration with a range of users, to continue building on the two real innovations of the project:

• Opening up of high quality analysis functions over the web
• Clear communication of information and its uncertainty for a variety of real-world applications, such as weather mapping, agricultural planning and contaminated land survey.

Thanks to Lucy Bastin and Dan Cornford from Aston University for providing us with the content for this post. For more information, contact Matthew Williams.

Map showing levels of worklessness in the Black Country May 2008 (click map to view at full size)

How can we tell whether real progress is being made towards achievement of the Black Country’s aspirations?

The aspirations are set out in the Black Country Vision and the  Black Country Strategy for Growth and Competitiveness (PDF, 72kb).

The answer may lie in the newly developed Black Country Performance Management framework, which consists of 24 key indicators that measure achievement of the Black Country Strategy (PDF, 72kb).

Supporting maps for each indicator are available on Black Country Knowledge (click through the relevant themes listed on the left hand side to access the maps).

Some key findings from the recent Black Country Business Barometer show that in the Black Country:

• There are low levels of business start ups (an additional 1,445 new registered businesses required).
• Achievement of current Local Area Agreement targets will not have an impact on the challenge.
• There are low levels of business stock (378 per 10,000 BC population vs. 484 nationally).

The report also provides information on business survival rates, employment and wage data. This report and many others can be downloaded from BC Reports within Black Country Knowledge (registration is required).

This work will be the basis upon which the Black Country will look to develop a co-ordinated and integrated framework for change, aligning strategy, delivery and evidence locally, sub-regionally and regionally.

Progress on the indicators is reported via a series of regular barometer reports that provide clear analysis of recent data and enable policy debate to be evidence driven.

Thanks to Delma Dwight at Black Country Observatory for contributing this article.

In 2004 the Egan Review started the discussion around skills for sustainable communities.

The Review aimed to identify the skills necessary, and any potential skill gaps, to deliver successful, sustainable communities.

The review recommended:

To encourage people into built environment professions and other core occupations; address gateway educational needs by working with employers, professional and academic institutions; address professional development needs; enable continuous development and review; and manage knowledge for those in associated and wider public groups.

However, two assumptions underline these recommendations:

1. Qualifications and skills are equivalent
2. Once you have learned a new set of skills (or achieved a qualification) you will practice the knowledge acquired.

I understand these assumptions are practical in terms of the analysis but could we say they are realistic?

The Economic & Social Research Council and Homes & Communities Academy funded 11 research projects as a joint targeted research initiative on skills and knowledge for sustainable communities. The idea behind the initiative was to build on the work proposed by The Egan Review, and deliver a new approach to skills for sustainable communities.

The findings from the research were organised in five policy briefings and include:

• The desire to measure ‘skills’ through qualification has a tendency to separate skill acquisition from the application of learning.
• The need for greater recognition and more effective application of ‘skill sets’ that support working and learning across stakeholder groups.
• A shift away from identifying and addressing simple skills deficits toward a more coherent understanding of the learning context in which those skills are required.
• New ways to evidence and value all learning is required, beyond either qualification or immediate application.
• Greater support is needed for the development of more opportunities to learn through practice.
• The need to move away from the top-down, local government led managerial approach towards a more organic and inclusive form of transformational leadership.

These findings were presented this week (3 June 2009) during the Skills & Knowledge for Sustainable Communities event in London. The policy briefings, summaries of each of the projects involved and case studies are available from the University of Strathclyde.

GIS (Geographical Information Systems) is helping to track and treat a plant disease, previously unknown in the United Kingdom, which is infecting and killing bilberry across the northern part of Cannock Chase Country Park.

With assistance from numerous volunteers, Staffordshire County Council’s Environment and Countryside team have been surveying the outbreak of Phytophthora pseudosyringae in the bilberry on Cannock Chase.

This alga-like fungus can cause the rotting of roots of some deciduous trees in Europe, and is associated with the condition known as oak decline.

It is rare in the United Kingdom and there appear to be few previous records for the infection of bilberry.

Using a mixture of Garmin and Trimble GeoExplorer GPS, staff and volunteers have surveyed all 1,300 hectares of Cannock Chase Country Park.

They have collected over 7,600 records of bilberry and other plant species, for each one detailing if it showed signs of infection.

Using ESRI ArcGIS, this information has been used to track and analyse the spread of the disease, create surveying rotas and provide numerous maps to inform the public and stakeholders of the current situation.

The GIS has provided information on slope angles for safe equipment handling as well as mapping the extent of the treated areas for future monitoring.

Phytophthora mapped in ArcGIS (view screenshot at full size).

The infected areas are being treated with a cutting and burning regime.

More information on the disease on Cannock Chase is available from Staffordshire County Council.

Contact details (plant disease):
Steve Potter
Head of Environment and Countryside
Staffordshire County Council
Tel: 01785 277260
Email: steve.potter@staffordshire.gov.uk

Contact details (GIS):
Shona Frost
Information Systems Group Leader
Staffordshire County Council
T: 01785 277280
Email: shona.frost@staffordshire.gov.uk

Thanks to Shona Frost from Staffordshire County Council for contributing this article.